Procurement Risk Management nu meer nodig dat ooit

Door: Walther Ploos van Amstel Gepubliceerd op 09 jul, 2011 in de rubriek Kennisnetwerken
Kennisbank onderwerpen: Risicomanagement, Inkoop

Modebedrijf H&M meldt dalende winstcijfers ondanks betere verkopen. De prijs van katoen is voor het eerst in de geschiedenis boven de 2 dollar uitgestegen. Dat is een verdubbeling sinds vorig jaar, toen de prijs voor het eerst in vijftien jaar boven 1 dollar uit kwamat. De torenhoge katoenprijs wordt mede veroorzaakt door de snel slinkende katoenvoorraden en de groeiende vraag in China.

Grondstofkosten

Ook producent Unilever voelt de hogere grondstofkosten en is niet voldoende in staat dit op te vangen met hogere consumentenprijzen. Volgens de FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) zullen de prijzen van voedsel en grondstoffen in 2011 en 2012 blijven stijgen. Tevens verwacht de FAO dat de volatiliteit hoog blijft in de komende tijd. Hoe ga je daar in de supply chain op anticiperen?

 

Supply chain management en inkoop

Supply chain management, inkoop, finance en risicomanagement moeten in de huidige marktomstandigheden hand in hand gaan. En dan gaat het niet alleen maar om de operationele risico’s die je loopt, maar ook om de financiele risico’s die je loopt. Door schaarste van bepaalde grondstoffen of capaciteiten, of grote fluctuaties in de vraag naar componenten en grondstoffen kan de prijs van die producten enorm schommelen, met alle gevolgen voor de verlies- en winstrekening van dien.

Niet voor niks besloot Apple onlangs alvast voor 11 miljard aan elektronische componenten in te kopen. Ze verwachten een steeds grotere concurrentie op de inkoopmarkten. En Apple ziet dat als een kans. Hoe zou het met de concurrenten van Apple gaan?

Procurement Risk Management

Procurement Risk Management (PRM) is het vakgebied dat supply chain management, inkoop, finance en risicomanagement verbindt.procurement

Debbis Wilson van Gartner stelt: ‘Risk management is as much an art as it is a science, because success requires broad contemplation concerning what could go wrong and how likely each potential disaster is, and planning fully for every possible problem is simply not practical. News of the last few days should be elevating risk management to the top of procurement’s mind. A growing number of suppliers are running into financial trouble given declining orders, increasing raw material costs, and tightened credit markets. Yes, procurement needs to cut costs but perhaps in some companies the greater job is identifying troubled suppliers and moving to mitigate the risk of compromised supply’.

Procurement risk

In terms of financial risk, there are three primary categories of risk that procurement should address: sole source risk, lengthy switch-over risk, and large customer risk:

1. Sole source risk – is the risk of shutting down your supply chain indefinitely because you have no alternative sources for certain suppliers. The best way to avoid sole source risk is to refrain from sourcing something that is only made by one supplier (such as a highly specialized semiconductor.) If you already have sole source parts, gauge your risk by estimating how much of your revenue will be impacted if the vendor shuts down. Those vendors with the greatest revenue impact are your largest risks. Mitigate sole source risk by tracking the financial health of those vendors and by actively working to redesign your products so that you have alternatives.
2. Lengthy switch-over risk – is the risk that occurs because you are working with a single vendor and changing over to an alternative will take a long time. This is different from a sole source vendor because there are alternatives. The Ariens article provides a great example of this type of risk. They were working with a single engine manufacturer for their snowblowers for a practical reason. It would probably have been too expensive to tool up and buy from two sources. This situation occurs a lot in indirect procurement as well – companies typically engage one IT help desk provider, one ERP company, and one construction firm for building new facilities. Again, watching the financial health of these vendors is key. Prioritize your risk management efforts by estimating the potential monetary impact of failure of each lengthy switch-over source.
3. Large customer risk – is the risk many procurement organizations miss, and miss to their detriment if their organization is large! Large customer risk occurs when your business constitutes a significant overall percentage of a vendor’s total revenues – at least 25% or more. When your fortunes swing, they are amplified for these vendors. A 10% cut in spend in a category for you may result in a 40% cut in cash flow for them – and put them under. For this risk type, it is good to track what percentage your revenues are to your vendor and any time you creep over 25%, look for additional sources of supply.

Masters in PRM

Accenture publiceerde vorig jaar het rapport met een benchmark van PRM in samenwerking met het Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Het rapport concludeert:

‘However, Accenture has observed that few companies translate this concern into a formal procurement risk management capability. Most do have risk-management structures within their finance organizations, and perhaps it is their belief that finance’s efforts are sufficient to mitigate risk across other company functions. We do not agree. It also is clear that many companies continue to manage risk “opportunistically,” i.e., on a case-by-case basis without a structured approach or specific criteria. We feel that this, too, is inadvisable. In fact, it is Accenture’s position that the need for a structured risk-management capability within (as well as beyond) the procurement organization is significant. Given today’s turbulent supply markets and volatile, pan-global business environment, corporate buyers need to make consistently superior decisions. And developing a formal, structured, risk management capability for procurement is an outstanding way to do just that’.

‘Accenture’s experience is that one of procurement masters’ most important attributes may be their use of a “risk management framework”—a comprehensive, end-to-end approach to anticipating, monitoring and mitigating risk. This is basically an over-layering process, whereby three riskmanagement stages (anticipation, monitoring and mitigation) are applied to the key components of a procurement organization’.

De praktijk van PRM bij HP

HP is een van de grootste inkopers van elektronische componenten wereldwijd en heeft veel onderzoek gedaan naar PRM en al 10 jaar ervaring opgedaan met PRM.

HP zegt erover: ‘Over 5 years implementing PRM has enabled over $100 million dollars in incremental savings.  Given the risk sharing aspects of PRM, the suppliers have benefited substantially as well.  The quantity commitments that HP makes to suppliers, as opposed to just exchanging nonbinding forecasts, has lowered supplier’s demand risks; suppliers of several strategic  commodities have locked-up a significant portion of their capacity through PRM deals with HP.

Some suppliers are making commitments to their suppliers (who are HP’s 2nd tier suppliers) tied  to HP’s quantity commitments to them.  This results in quantity commitments cascading deeper  into the supply chain resulting in a significant drop in the order volatility through the supply  chain, and thus a reducing the bull-whip effect.  Therefore the PRM approach has the effect of  smoothing the supply chain’.

Lees meer over PRM bij HP.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: grondstofprijzen, hp, inkoop, inkoper, prm, procurment risk management, supply chain finance

• Tweet